If you don't believe it, I don't need to waste my breath. Many people can only experience one wave of altcoin season every four years. The timing is very clear; on the 14th, it was mentioned that within a week by the 20th, if there are any spikes, one can build positions and hold firmly. The fact is, most targets bottomed out on the 19th, and those with fundamentals have today fully recovered from their declines. The overall logic remains valid. Ethereum is at the end of its strong momentum and doesn't offer high cost-effectiveness. Some altcoins are showing independent trends, which is a natural selection made after the funds are redistributed. Many coins that have risen the fastest over the past four years only did so in those ten days. The current timing has reached the threshold for acceleration. Using a 10% stop-loss to aim for several times the potential return seems very worthwhile to me. Any fluctuations, guided by the time cycle, will become particularly effective and feedback will be timely, especially at the convergence points of different time cycles. It’s once again a time when choice outweighs effort. If you grasp this well in the next month or two, the power of compound interest can be terrifying. Regarding how to compound: altcoins generally go through three waves: ① slight upward phase ② pullback and washout with long-short differentiation ③ rapid upward phase. Fast movers like BIO are already in the third phase (leading friends in the channel to a 300% gain), while those moving relatively quickly have completed the second phase and are about to enter the third rapid upward phase, such as Pendle, LDO, and other top-value coins. Those moving more slowly are still in the first phase, like Pepe, Pnut, and other memes. With this in mind, how to rotate and compound should be quite clear. Indeed, the current market is one of scarce liquidity. As soon as Ethereum rises slightly, altcoins greedily absorb funds. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of Ethereum executing a self-destructive attack to crash the market in order to quickly recoup funds. In a macro and event-driven market that is constantly changing, having a risk management plan is always wise.
开战!周期的力量再次显现,以太坊(即将)和比特币在今日突破历史新高,历史上新高后山寨标的的行情会比较好做;事实上,大部分人的记忆停留在21年1-5月的山寨季,但不记得20年大部分山寨也是横盘200多天后才在21年上半年集中爆发,彼时彼刻正如此时此刻,当麻木的交易者们沉浸在低落的氛围,将习惯看作是理所当然,市场会不会给出一发暴击? 索罗斯反身性是我喜欢的理论之一,4.4在推特喊多,正逢比特币季度周期的底部,随后看到了飙到60(几年难遇)的vix恐慌指数,更加深了我的判断; 未来的行情其实也很好做,结合当下币圈的实际情况以及一些常识,需要做一些取舍,①低流动性市场买强不买弱②初期买龙头,资金首先追捧的地方③不要想着穿越周期,大部分标的会在一个月内完成收割④先玩价值币再玩meme币; 关于上车时机的问题,大饼和以太坊突破新高后,大部分山寨都在走第一步,快速小幅度拉升例如arb uni zk,有的已经进入第二步,开始做平台例如bio,整体上是否有大的、流畅的趋势行情,20号附近可以作为阈值,所以从今天开始到20号一个周的时间,如果有山寨闪崩,进入并持有,拿到下个月初; 没上车的未来一个周肯定会给你机会上车的,假设有山寨行情→以太坊会资金流出→以太坊会闪崩→山寨插针,很简单的逻辑; 有了频道后发推频率就少了,毕竟反馈也更加及时,后续试试先在频道中交流,但是有些零散,然后用ai总结发下推特。
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