took a good whole month off and back to the desk and some market thoughts before today's macro event Post-Jackson Hole Macro It’s been quiet since Jackson Hole, but let’s recap what actually changed: Powell made a meaningful policy shift — The Fed is now officially prioritizing employment over inflation. This means: Even if inflation stays high, rate cuts will come if labor doesn’t improve. No rate hikes unless labor data improves first Historically, the Fed always reacts late — we saw this in 2020–2022, when they held rates near zero even as inflation hit 10% So what now? If CPI/PPI comes in hot, we might see short-term sell pressure But as long as employment stays weak, the inflation narrative will get re-interpreted as “cut-friendly” Basically, market direction will now be labor-driven. Even 4% inflation could be tolerated under this new stance. All eyes on tonight’s employment data. Here’s how I’m prepping: If data is much stronger than expected → small size long If it’s inline → wait & watch how market reacts If it’s worse than expected → expecting a wick down, will size in bigger to the long side This is no longer about the job numbers alone — it’s about how it reshapes the rate cut narrative. — Strong jobs = good for equities but not enough to bring liquidity from rate cuts Weak jobs = opens the door for more aggressive cuts 50bps rate cut this month (Sep) is unlikely, but weak labor would make the Fed much more dovish in tone. — Still leaning toward Q4 rally