15h ago
Thinking through the $BMX setup & associated Coinbase incentive between $BMX vs. $AERO: (1) Valuation disconnect ($20M FDV $BMX vs. >$1B FDV $AERO) against superior $BMX tokenomics via DeliSwap-$wBLT-$BMX (no emissions, >70% $BMX is staked, revenue buyback via fees) & wBLT-driven swap-fee subsidization are arguably enough to collapse this spread. (2) We know $BMX will white-label Llamaswap and route through all DEX's to offer superior execution. Even at the expense of DeliSwap volume. This is VERY important as it’s arguably more aligned with $COIN's push to maximize activity on Base chain & to not enable apps extracting fees from users that would suppress ‘true Base economic activity.’ (3) With DeliSwap + $BMX, $COIN is no longer dependent on $AERO as a sole-source driver of DEX volumes. Not to mention $AERO has a clear bias for their own DEX + unsustainable emissions. The undeniable arc of DeFi in crypto is (i) improved UI & enabling (ii) faster execution with reduced fees to take share. $BMX is on-trend & strategic for $COIN to continue lowering fees on their Base chain + drive economic activity: Their north star. (4) $wBLT fee subsidization should enable discounts on swaps, furthering $COIN’s objective to reduce frictional costs behind enabling Base adoption over the coming years. At the same time, this prevents dilution for tokenholders: incentives are aligned ($UNI + $AERO are suffering from this issue today). (5) We have precedent from 1inch vs. $UNI that aggregators have a right to take share over sole source DEX's - especially as demand from routers increasingly becomes algorithmic (Base AI apps will become the clear driver here). (6) We know $COIN VC arm has invested $500K cost into $BMX at ~$4/token & @jessepollak is actively engaging with the team. Surpassing $BMX would require (1) a net new protocol with <$20M valuation standing up a ‘fair to play’ DEX; (2) No founder lock-up & emissions that bias value capture to team + VC’s; (3) Adequate time to re-build what @meowphasaurus and team have created – while $BMX has a clear head-start. @jessepollak has articulated many times that the fat-pitch opportunities on Base today are to lay the foundation for infrastructure that can compound for a decade+ as $COIN ramps activity on Base. $BMX is an asymmetric bet on this future world-view, with a DEX model possessing superior tokenomics against the clear market leader at 50x+ the valuation, while simultaneously creating leverage for $COIN to suppress swap fees on their chain & enable their stated intent of maximizing financial activity. Disc: I own & stake $BMX.
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