This makes no sense. The data here does not tell a clear story.
OP tries to claim that "Big bang TGEs are dead," but half of the "Strong TGEs" are up, half of them are down. And by proportion, most of the successful tokens are "Strong TGEs."
And then the bottom left quadrant of "weak TGEs" only has 8 entries in it, when it should have more like 1000 entries—most TGEs are weak and have negligible hype. That makes it more obvious that Zora and Virtuals are outliers, which is not a strategy.
There is no simple story to tell about how to launch a successful token. Definitely nothing that fits on a Hallmark card. "Launch small and accrue value over time" is another way of saying, "be a sleeper hit," which is not actionable advice.
If people are excited about your token, you cannot launch low. That is a fantasy. If you launch Monad at $500M, it will pop up to multi-billion valuation the next block. You're just giving away money to snipers. It's no different from memecoin launches or NFT mints. If the market believes you're worth X, you're gonna be priced at X, like it or not.
But while I disagree with the analysis of OP, the vibe is clearly dead-on. The rotation of hot money out of the altcoin market and into the equity market over 2025 has challenged a lot of TGEs. But I tend to think these things are all cyclical. People have short memories in crypto, but I remember many points in past cycles where alts were weak, and every time people tell themselves "well that's it, it's finally over, alts will never again catch a bid."
I don't worry too much about that.
But in the meantime, entrepreneurs have to keep building, cycle in, cycle out. My advice to them: focus on product, retain your team, treat your community well, and don't mistake your token price as your report card. Remember what you're building and why you're building it, and trust that if you build something that your users love, the market will ultimately reward you.
Just might take longer than you once thought.
Big bang TGEs are dead
The new playbook:
Wait until there’s adoption, or launch small and accrue value over time
I analyzed TGEs from the past 18 months for our Safary Certification program, comparing launch mindshare to token performance today
Almost every hyped TGE cratered within 48 hours
The ones that held up were quiet TGEs with steady believers
Take Virtuals - most people don’t realize they TGE'ed a year *before* the AI meta
The past few years have rewarded pessimists and punished believers
But if we design incentives that reward the protocols building real adoption and fundamentals, the believers may just finally win

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