Arthur Hayes isn’t just another crypto voice. He built BitMEX, called every Bitcoin ATH since 2016, and now says the famous 4-year cycle is over. Here’s what he believes comes next for BTC in 2025–2026 👇🧵

As we get started, may I ask for a quick favor?  I've put a lot of time in research to create this and would appreciate any interaction with the thread.  Bookmark, like, or reply to the first tweet.

He has years of experience trading at Deutsche Bank and later co-founded BitMEX. Hayes rose to fame for accurately predicting the 2020 bull run. His understanding of the market is deeper than almost anyone’s. He sees Bitcoin as a reflection of the world’s economic condition.

He recently published a new essay that surprised everyone who follows him. His key idea is that Bitcoin no longer follows the old market cycles. Now, Bitcoin’s movement is mostly linked to how strong the dollar is. Seeing the full picture helps you understand global trends.

Hayes says the market now depends on two things - the cost of money and how much of it is available. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin tends to rise sharply. The same happens in reverse when the dollar gains strength. It’s no longer about market cycles liquidity now drives the pumps.

Looking back at earlier cycles and what sparked each rally: 2009–2013: Bitcoin surged due to unlimited money printing after the financial crisis. 2013–2017: The rise was powered by China’s credit expansion. 2017–2021: The rally came from massive liquidity during the COVID-19 era. These patterns show the cycle depends not only on the US but also heavily on China.

Hayes points out that from 2021 to 2025, the situation is completely different: The Federal Reserve is reducing its reserves. China is battling deflation. Yet, both are eventually pushed to start printing money again.